Another relevant recent book is "The Primacy of Doubt" by Tim Palmer, one of the leadersin the field of ensemble forecasting for weather prediction.Sep 5, 20231Sep 5, 20231
Published inPredictAnticipating Rare Events of Major Significance: Eavesdropping on the Adult TableBeing retired, healthy and affluent, I could just play around like a Big Kid, but one should sometimes still join the adult table. This…Oct 14, 2022Oct 14, 2022
In what important real world contexts is it both practical and useful to attempt to estimate…Probabilities of unique events?Aug 7, 20211Aug 7, 20211
(1) The importance of this type of contest is a central point of David Donoho's 2017 article "50…(2) Was the choice of criterion "RMSE" rather than "predicting exact rating (1-5) correctly" a stroke of genius, a stroke of idiocy, or…Jun 24, 2021Jun 24, 2021
Communicating with Data: The Art of Writing for Data ScienceA new book by Deborah Nolan and Sara StoudtMay 23, 2021May 23, 2021
Published inTowards Data ScienceJanuary’s most engrossing Small DataThe Global Risks Report.Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021
Published inCantor’s ParadiseOn Four Quotes From G.H. HardyI occasionally let slip that I am an academic great-grandchild of G.H. Hardy, whose non-technical writings about mathematics, in…Dec 31, 20203Dec 31, 20203
The acid test of a generative model for data.How well does it predict a feature you didn’t fit?Dec 22, 2020Dec 22, 2020
Published inTowards AIBayesian Updating and the “Picture Becomes Clearer” AnalogyBayesian updating — revising an estimate when new information is available — is a key part of data science. But the sense in which ……..Oct 26, 20201Oct 26, 20201
Doing research mathematics is like ……..Popular writings about mathematics, and autobiographies by eminent mathematicians, provide some sense of what doing research-level…Sep 23, 2020Sep 23, 2020
