Elo ratings are used in other sports with many competitors or teams and no routine league format. The site https://www.eloratings.net for International Football (soccer) team ratings has the intriguing assertion “Ratings tend to converge on a team’s true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches”. This claim is copied elsewhere, but I can’t find its origin or justification, and I suspect that someone just made it up. I have a slightly technical simulation analysis paper at https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/Papers/me150.pdf
which suggests winning probabilities derived from Elo ratings are liable to be 10% off.

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After a research career at U.C. Berkeley, now focussed on articulating critically what mathematical probability says about the real world.

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David Aldous

David Aldous

After a research career at U.C. Berkeley, now focussed on articulating critically what mathematical probability says about the real world.

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