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In what important real world contexts is it both practical and useful to attempt to estimate numerical probabilities of unique future events?

Probabilities of unique events?

To estimate the probability of nuclear war.

To estimate probabilities for levels of greenhouse gas emissions through the 21st century?

To estimate probabilities or to create scenarios?

To estimate probabilities for medium term global economic risks?

To estimate the chance of a major earthquake on the Hayward fault?


After a research career at U.C. Berkeley, now focussed on articulating critically what mathematical probability says about the real world.