David AldousAnother relevant recent book is "The Primacy of Doubt" by Tim Palmer, one of the leadersin the field of ensemble forecasting for weather prediction.1 min read·Sep 5, 2023--1--1
David AldousinPredictAnticipating Rare Events of Major Significance: Eavesdropping on the Adult TableBeing retired, healthy and affluent, I could just play around like a Big Kid, but one should sometimes still join the adult table. This…5 min read·Oct 14, 2022----
David AldousIn what important real world contexts is it both practical and useful to attempt to estimate…Probabilities of unique events?8 min read·Aug 7, 2021--1--1
David Aldous(1) The importance of this type of contest is a central point of David Donoho's 2017 article "50…(2) Was the choice of criterion "RMSE" rather than "predicting exact rating (1-5) correctly" a stroke of genius, a stroke of idiocy, or…1 min read·Jun 24, 2021----
David AldousCommunicating with Data: The Art of Writing for Data ScienceA new book by Deborah Nolan and Sara Stoudt2 min read·May 23, 2021----
David AldousinTowards Data ScienceJanuary’s most engrossing Small DataThe Global Risks Report.5 min read·Jan 6, 2021----
David AldousinCantor’s ParadiseOn Four Quotes From G.H. HardyI occasionally let slip that I am an academic great-grandchild of G.H. Hardy, whose non-technical writings about mathematics, in…4 min read·Dec 31, 2020--3--3
David AldousThe acid test of a generative model for data.How well does it predict a feature you didn’t fit?3 min read·Dec 22, 2020----
David AldousinTowards AIBayesian Updating and the “Picture Becomes Clearer” AnalogyBayesian updating — revising an estimate when new information is available — is a key part of data science. But the sense in which ……..3 min read·Oct 26, 2020--1--1
David AldousDoing research mathematics is like ……..Popular writings about mathematics, and autobiographies by eminent mathematicians, provide some sense of what doing research-level…5 min read·Sep 23, 2020----